South Africa's rand is expected to firm more than 3 percent to 7.825 per dollar in twelve months, a Reuters poll showed, but that is dependent on a solution to Europe's debt crisis and a pickup in global growth this year.
The rand was one of the world's worst performing currencies last year, losing roughly 22 percent against the dollar as investors spooked by a spiralling crisis in Europe pulled out of riskier emerging markets.
The survey of 34 foreign exchange analysts and economists forecast the rand would weaken against the dollar to 8.335 in 3 months from roughly 8.18 on Thursday, recover to 8.215 in 6 months and climb back to 7.825 in a year.
The last survey had a more bullish strengthening trend for the coming 12 months than the current survey, 8.1 in three months, 8.0 in six months and 7.68 in twelve months.
“US dollar strength and rising risk aversion levels, on the worsening of the sovereign debt crisis,Can't afford a third party merchant account right now? has weakened our rand forecast,” said Annabel Bishop, economist at Investec.We are professional Plastic mould,
Analysts in the poll figured riskier assets would do better in the second half of the year, and so the rand, but noted that a further deterioration in the global macroeconomic outlook would easily change that.
“While the mining and manufacturing sectors should recover from the weakness experienced in 2011, headwinds from the global macroeconomic environment and rising cost pressures will restrain growth,Take a walk on the natural side with stunning and luxurious Floor tiles from The Tile Shop.” said John Cairns, at Rand Merchant Bank.
Mining and manufacturing growth in Africa's biggest economy slowed sharply in October. Total mining output contracted by 12.7 percent year-on-year while growth in manufacturing output slowed to 1.0 percent year-on-year in the same period.
The contraction in mining output reflected weakness in South Africa's trading partners,Online fine art gallery of quality original landscape oil paintings, with Europe the biggest partner.
The global backdrop is expected to determine where the rand trades. Some noted that a further widening of the current account deficit may restrain the rand's ability to recover.
“Worryingly,Information on useful yeasts and moulds, the bulk of the current account deficit is financed by 'hot' money inflows,” Royal Bank of Scotland said in a client note, adding around $32 billion has poured into the South African equity and bond markets in the last two years.
With the latest euro zone purchasing managers' indexes (PMIs) suggesting a mild recession in the region, the prospect of falling exports and possible capital outflows would weaken the rand.
That current account deficit widened to 3.8 percent of gross domestic product in the third quarter from 2.9 percent in the second quarter, partly due to large dividend payments to foreign investors.
The forecast for interest rates according to the latest Reuters Econometer is for rates to stay on hold at 5.5 percent while inflation averages 5.97 percent for the year, offering no immediate incentive to invest in the bond market.
The rand was one of the world's worst performing currencies last year, losing roughly 22 percent against the dollar as investors spooked by a spiralling crisis in Europe pulled out of riskier emerging markets.
The survey of 34 foreign exchange analysts and economists forecast the rand would weaken against the dollar to 8.335 in 3 months from roughly 8.18 on Thursday, recover to 8.215 in 6 months and climb back to 7.825 in a year.
The last survey had a more bullish strengthening trend for the coming 12 months than the current survey, 8.1 in three months, 8.0 in six months and 7.68 in twelve months.
“US dollar strength and rising risk aversion levels, on the worsening of the sovereign debt crisis,Can't afford a third party merchant account right now? has weakened our rand forecast,” said Annabel Bishop, economist at Investec.We are professional Plastic mould,
Analysts in the poll figured riskier assets would do better in the second half of the year, and so the rand, but noted that a further deterioration in the global macroeconomic outlook would easily change that.
“While the mining and manufacturing sectors should recover from the weakness experienced in 2011, headwinds from the global macroeconomic environment and rising cost pressures will restrain growth,Take a walk on the natural side with stunning and luxurious Floor tiles from The Tile Shop.” said John Cairns, at Rand Merchant Bank.
Mining and manufacturing growth in Africa's biggest economy slowed sharply in October. Total mining output contracted by 12.7 percent year-on-year while growth in manufacturing output slowed to 1.0 percent year-on-year in the same period.
The contraction in mining output reflected weakness in South Africa's trading partners,Online fine art gallery of quality original landscape oil paintings, with Europe the biggest partner.
The global backdrop is expected to determine where the rand trades. Some noted that a further widening of the current account deficit may restrain the rand's ability to recover.
“Worryingly,Information on useful yeasts and moulds, the bulk of the current account deficit is financed by 'hot' money inflows,” Royal Bank of Scotland said in a client note, adding around $32 billion has poured into the South African equity and bond markets in the last two years.
With the latest euro zone purchasing managers' indexes (PMIs) suggesting a mild recession in the region, the prospect of falling exports and possible capital outflows would weaken the rand.
That current account deficit widened to 3.8 percent of gross domestic product in the third quarter from 2.9 percent in the second quarter, partly due to large dividend payments to foreign investors.
The forecast for interest rates according to the latest Reuters Econometer is for rates to stay on hold at 5.5 percent while inflation averages 5.97 percent for the year, offering no immediate incentive to invest in the bond market.
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