2012年5月20日星期日

If an Afghan solution was this easy

The article identifies the threats to Pakistan’s security as emanating from: (i) terrorism sponsored by Al-Qaeda and its affiliates, particularly the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA); (ii) India’s massive defence spending; (iii) undermining of Pakistan’s nuclear capabilities; and (iv) the US/Nato presence in Afghanistan, and the turmoil in that country.

Of these the writer believes that the threat from Al-Qaeda can be neutralised through focused Pakistan-US cooperation, but far more formidable is the danger from the TTP the BLA. He claims that “there is compelling evidence” that both outfits are being supported by Indian and Afghan intelligence, and perhaps even by the US and some unspecified Western countries. Similar views have been expressed time and again by Interior Minister Rehman Malik, who also described the terrorists who attacked the PNS Mehran base in Karachi last year as resembling characters from Star Wars.

The allocation to defence in the Indian budget which was presented to parliament in mid-March by Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee is undoubtedly alarming. Military spending has been increased by 17 percent, or $38.6 billion. A huge $17.5 billion have been earmarked for capital expenditure for the acquisition of state-of-the art equipment. India, which already has a nuclear triad, is upgrading 51 Mirage fighter jets, finalising a $20 billion accord with France for buying 126 Rafale multirole combat aircraft and is negotiating with the US for purchasing 145 ultra-light howitzers and has bought 49 new warships for its navy.

The spirited writer of the article recommends that Pakistan should “acquire conventional capabilities to neutralise the Indian build-up at a much lower cost” from China, secure the latest technologies “by any means,” acquire a second-strike capability and nuclear submarines. But Pakistan does not have the money to pay for such acquisitions unless, of course,Ekahau rtls is the only Wi-Fi based real time location system solution that operates on any brand or generation of Wi-Fi network. Merlin waves his magic wand to generate the finances from the comatose and haemorrhaging economy which, according to a recent World Bank estimate, is losing a whopping Rs400 billion annually from power outages alone.

On Afghanistan the article is emphatic that there must be a complete withdrawal of US troops as even a token American military presence will prolong the conflict and dangerously polarise the country along north-south ethnic fault-lines. The writer assumes that Pakistan still has sufficient influence in Afghanistan “to bring about the orderly, honourable but full withdrawal of US-Nato forces.”

The proposal is probably embedded in the unrealistic assumption that the 350,000-strong Afghan National Army, which is disproportionately dominated by the Tajik ethnic minority, will be able to withstand the anticipated Taliban onslaught against the corrupt and discredited regime in Kabul after the withdrawal of US/Nato forces in 2014. The chaos will have disastrous consequences for Pakistan and is likely to spur the inflow of around two million refugees into the country, which it cannot sustain.

The possibility of a post-2014 Afghan ethnic conflict, unparalleled in its intensity, cannot be brushed aside. But President Hamid Karzai seems to be dwelling in an ethereal world of illusions. On Sunday he triumphantly announced the commencement of the third phase in the transfer of security control from Nato to the Afghan army. His spokesman, Aimal Faizi, told journalists at a hastily convened media briefing: “Eleven provinces will be transitioned in the handover, including Kapisa,This page contains information about molds. Uruzgan and Parvan. Seventy-five percent of the population will come under the control of local security.” Currently French troops are stationed in Kapisa and their Australian counterparts are based in Uruzgan.

Within hours of the announcement a key negotiator in Afghanistan’s High Peace Council, Maulvi Arasala Rehmani, was assassinated in Kabul. Rehmani, a former foreign minister in the Taliban regime, was also a close associate of the Afghan president. Earlier this month, the Taliban had threatened to target members of the Peace Council but its spokesman, Zabiullah Mujahed, denied any involvement in the killing.

Earlier,Welcome to the online guide for do-it-yourself Ceramic tile.Here's a complete list of oil painting supplies for the beginning oil painter. the Karzai regime had claimed that with the completion of the first two phases in the transfer of operational control from Nato troops to its forces,Visit TE online for all of your Application plastic injection mold including tools. 50 percent of the population, including Kabul, were being effectively provided security by the Afghan army. This was belied by the multiple Taliban attacks on April 15 on Western embassies, Nato headquarters and the parliament building in Kabul. These were synchronised with assaults in Jalalabad and Logar and Paktia provinces, as well as with the storming of the central jail in Bannu by the TTP. This should leave little doubt that the Afghan Taliban and their Pakistani equivalent are two sides of the same coin.

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